Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e5b…6fe1 sports 832 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+0%) realized −$88 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate77%635W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$22
14 days−$45
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$93
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.4% -36.1% 41% 24% -36.6%
≤30d 506 +3.0% -6.8% 77% 53% -9.0%
≤90d 830 +2.2% -7.5% 77% 51% -9.8%
all 830 +2.2% -7.5% 77% 51% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 51% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 27% -18.4%
15% -24.5% 12% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses635 / 195
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions2
Markets (closed)830 / 832
History coverage58d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 87¢ 54¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 93¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$5 -51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -93%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$4 -74%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$3 +55%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$1 +9%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$1 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $13 −$12 -93%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$4 +74%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 $0 +9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $9 +$2 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $43 +$12 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $66 −$35 -53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $49 +$15 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$6 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$6 +17%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$10 +32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $21 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $17 $0 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $56 +$9 +17%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $22 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $17 +$2 +13%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $11 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 $0 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$6 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $75 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 87¢ $5 0m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 5¢ $1 42m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 93¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $3 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 94¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 93¢ $5 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 20¢ $0 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 22¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 79¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 33¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 64¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 3¢ $0 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 39¢ $4 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 20¢ $1 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 75¢ $5 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 73¢ $5 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 37¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.08 · official $3.08 (match) · 2820 history records