Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e5d…3d25 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$622 (+28%) realized +$632 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$351
sports 20% +$369
world 4% −$80
crypto 3% −$30
finance 0% +$4
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.2% -12.5% 19% 19% -8.4%
≤30d 27 -3.2% -12.5% 19% 19% -8.4%
≤90d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 24% 24% -9.2%
all 76 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 30% +31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 30% +31.7%
10% -19.2% 26% +19.1%
15% -27.0% 21% +7.6%
20% -34.1% 18% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$7 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$858
Realized+$632
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage228d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $828 $827 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +800%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $273 +$142 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$81 +805%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$30 +96%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $104 −$5 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $6 +$12 +212%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $1 +$4 +335%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 04 $3 +$7 +212%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 04 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 23 $17 −$15 -88%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $117 +$258 +221%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16 Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $159 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $320 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $320 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 6¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $176 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $96 29h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 59¢ $99 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $104 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $64 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $858.31 · official $859.31 (match) · 217 history records