Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e5e…d2da crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$33 (+8%) realized +$43 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 56L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$70
crypto 31% −$33
other 22% −$18
world 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +22.3% +10.6% 29% 25% +1.8%
≤30d 48 +22.3% +10.6% 29% 25% +1.8%
≤90d 48 +22.3% +10.6% 29% 25% +1.8%
all 87 +5.4% -4.7% 36% 32% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 32% -3.5%
10% -13.8% 30% -12.7%
15% -22.1% 28% -21.2%
20% -29.8% 22% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 98
History coverage108d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +303%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$14 +155%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $47 −$43 -92%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +115%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +162%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $13 −$11 -83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +413%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$105 +2108%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland e Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 27 $3 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 7m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 30m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $4 32m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 32m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $2 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 38¢ $2 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $2 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 3¢ $2 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 39¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $2 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 4¢ $4 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 19¢ $5 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $5 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $9.20 · 216 history records