Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e60…da40 crypto 253 markets active 3h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$15 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%105W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$419
politics 8% −$48
other 8% +$115
sports 7% +$96
world 2% +$115
economics 1% −$55
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +1.9% -7.8% 28% 26% -17.5%
≤30d 75 +5.7% -4.4% 31% 29% -6.7%
≤90d 201 -10.2% -18.7% 37% 31% -14.9%
all 248 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 37% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 33% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 28% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses105 / 143
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)248 / 253
History coverage162d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$161 +784%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$21 +683%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$27 -38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$15 -22%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giants Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 20 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$60 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $43 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 5¢ $26 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 15h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 36h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $24 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 37h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 12¢ $3 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $28 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 44h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 5¢ $9 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $47 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.69 · official $25.69 (match) · 934 history records