Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

4E 0x4e60…3d41 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$940per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$5

14 days−$12

30 days−$7

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-59.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-39.9%	-45.6%	60%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	19	-52.5%	-57.1%	47%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	20	-54.9%	-59.2%	45%	0%	-9.6%
all	20	-54.9%	-59.2%	45%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.2%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-63.1%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-66.7%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-69.9%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,065) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -50% → late -60% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage

Net worth$2,064

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage31d

Avg bet$940

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,058	$2,059	+$1 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$2,052	+$6	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2,049	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$2,045	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	May 30	$2,080	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	May 29	$2,076	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28?	May 29	$2,073	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$2,068	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	May 28	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27?	May 27	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	May 26	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	May 18	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$2,058	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$2,052	19h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,049	24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,045	42h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	BUY No	0¢	$4	8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	BUY No	0¢	$4	13d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,080	19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,076	19d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,073	20d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,068	20d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	22d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	24d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,064.07 · official $2,064.07 (match) · 34 history records