Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e62…1f86 politics 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$3
politics 30% −$6
sports 20% −$4
economics 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 +0.9% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 92 -8.1% -16.9% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage371d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 99¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $154 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $74 $0 -1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $153 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $71 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $300 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $77 $0 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $73 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $78 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $79 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $251 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $74 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 15d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $71 108d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 108d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 110d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 112d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 119d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $74 120d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $74 126d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 133d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 136d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 137d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $75 138d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $73 140d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $73 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $75 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $75 142d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 143d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 144d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $74 145d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $74 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.58 · official $76.58 (match) · 368 history records