Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e63…d208 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$324 (-5%) realized +$465 · open −$789
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 237d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$886
other 18% −$1,001
politics 16% −$602
sports 16% −$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 33% -5.0%
≤90d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 33% -5.0%
all 18 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 28% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 28% -18.2%
10% -28.9% 28% -26.0%
15% -35.7% 28% -33.2%
20% -42.0% 28% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$197 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$465
Unrealized−$789
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage237d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 15¢ $600 $2 −$598 (-100%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 10¢ $192 $1 −$191 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $417 −$87 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $288 +$525 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $236 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $210 −$108 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $210 +$159 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $315 +$4 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $492 −$403 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $208 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $182 +$243 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $387 +$16 +4%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev Oct 30 $405 −$405 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Oct 30 $1,000 −$596 -60%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in t Oct 30 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer in October? Oct 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 30? Oct 30 $598 +$692 +116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 30? Oct 30 $57 −$56 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 8m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $195 19m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 35m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 58m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $410 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $331 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $813 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $369 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $140 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $8.97 · 72 history records