Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4E 0x4e64…66f1 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,078 (-17%) realized −$3,049 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$2,393
other 19% −$15
sports 4% −$191
tech 1% −$48
politics 1% −$8
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.2% -19.7% 50% 38% -10.8%
≤30d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 33% -11.1%
≤90d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 33% -11.1%
all 59 -30.6% -37.2% 19% 14% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 14% -28.0%
10% -43.2% 12% -34.9%
15% -48.7% 10% -41.2%
20% -53.7% 10% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$70 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$2,876
Realized−$3,049
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 48
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage181d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $486 −$18 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $255 +$6 +2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$103 -51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$213 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 21 $30 −$10 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 21 $32 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 21 $25 −$19 -77%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 21 $493 −$62 -12%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7AM ET Jan 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26? Jan 20 $5 −$3 -64%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Jan 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $2 $0 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 20 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $2 +$1 +33%
Devils vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $90 −$10 -12%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 20? Jan 20 $20 −$9 -44%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $30 −$3 -10%
Spread: Jets (-1.5) Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5 Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana: 1H Moneyline Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. Hampton Pirates Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January? Jan 20 $30 −$7 -23%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 19 $21 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 19 $69 −$68 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 19 $120 +$13 +11%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 19 $100 −$49 -49%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET Jan 19 $70 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6AM ET Jan 19 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? Jan 19 $100 +$81 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 8AM ET Jan 19 $100 −$4 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET Jan 19 $100 −$4 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6AM ET Jan 19 $200 −$12 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$22 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $100 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $262 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 6h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $101 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $519 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $59 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,132 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,422 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,091 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $97 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $94 12d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $20 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $30 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,875.55 · official $2,875.55 (match) · 175 history records