Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e65…7a19 weather 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$543 (+1%) realized +$563 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%285W / 19L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$535
crypto 2% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.4% -8.2% 95% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 105 -3.2% -12.5% 91% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 304 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 1% -8.6%
all 304 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -8.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,577
Realized+$563
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses285 / 19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)304 / 309
History coverage84d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $438 $426 −$12 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $393 $392 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $369 $366 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $247 $244 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $159 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $325 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $173 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $345 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $234 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $506 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $441 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $240 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $293 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 09 $415 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $309 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $198 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 08 $177 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 07 $266 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $451 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $272 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 05 $869 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $240 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $139 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $138 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 03 $558 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $237 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $164 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $393 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $149 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $248 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $249 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $102 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $199 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $248 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $42 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $369 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $297 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $152 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $98 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $396 47h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $221 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $159 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $226 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $297 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $63 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $204 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $173 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $98 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $247 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $116 7d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $250 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $234 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $184 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? SELL No 93¢ $111 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,577.13 · official $1,577.13 (match) · 827 history records