Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4E 0x4e66…bb4b crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$314 (+16%) realized +$315 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%45W / 67L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$139
world 9% +$6
other 5% +$5
sports 4% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -28.9% -35.7% 29% 24% +13.2%
≤30d 21 -28.9% -35.7% 29% 24% +13.2%
≤90d 27 -26.7% -33.6% 26% 22% +5.7%
all 112 -2.1% -11.5% 40% 38% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 38% +3.1%
10% -19.9% 37% -6.8%
15% -27.7% 32% -15.8%
20% -34.8% 22% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$315
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses45 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage159d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$27 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +206%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$47 +309%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$79 +388%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 15 $6 +$14 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 14 $2 +$18 +1148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 14 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 14 $32 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 14 $45 +$35 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 13 $3 +$27 +1011%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 13 $20 +$20 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 12 $21 +$19 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 29¢ $5 34h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 36h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $10 36h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $100 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.38 · official $19.38 (match) · 307 history records