Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e67…5993 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 23% −$6
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.2% 30% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 8% -9.6%
all 24 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -10.9%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 −$6 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 40m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records