Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4E 0x4e69…0923 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$45 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%5W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$60

7 days+$77

14 days+$35

30 days+$35

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-63.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-34.2%	-40.4%	42%	42%	+5.2%
≤30d	23	-59.3%	-63.2%	22%	22%	-3.4%
≤90d	23	-59.3%	-63.2%	22%	22%	-3.4%
all	23	-59.3%	-63.2%	22%	22%	-3.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.2%	22%	-3.4%
10%	-66.7%	17%	-12.7%
15%	-69.9%	17%	-21.1%
20%	-72.9%	9%	-28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -87% → late -34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$12 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage

Net worth$166

Realized+$45

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses5 / 18

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage23d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$48	$47	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$122	+$85	+70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$135	+$142	+105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$10	+$2	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 18	$137	−$137	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$22	+$10	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	+$7	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 13	$2	−$1	-59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$49	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$61	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$122	24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	82¢	$10	45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$135	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$10	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	55¢	$137	3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$22	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$0	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$0	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Down	75¢	$2	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.81 · official $165.82 (match) · 55 history records