Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e69…dab6 crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%212W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$17
weather 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 44% -11.3%
≤30d 371 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.0%
≤90d 452 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 45% -11.5%
all 452 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -11.5%
10% -21.7% 42% -20.0%
15% -29.3% 41% -27.7%
20% -36.2% 39% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses212 / 240
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage71d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 43¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+132%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 976 history records