Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4e69…e307 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+8%) realized +$156 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
world 31% +$78
crypto 17% −$3
sports 4% −$27
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -69.9% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.7%
≤30d 1 -69.9% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.7%
≤90d 24 -9.0% -17.6% 38% 38% -12.3%
all 36 -9.3% -18.0% 47% 39% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 39% -8.9%
10% -25.8% 33% -17.6%
15% -33.0% 25% -25.6%
20% -39.6% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage111d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$140 -70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 −$25 -82%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 +$67 +66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$65 +64%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$18 -89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$20 +98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 26 $20 −$14 -71%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $18 +$4 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $20 +$8 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $40 +$86 +216%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $60 −$7 -12%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $30 +$7 +25%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 29 $23 −$22 -96%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $20 −$17 -85%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 29 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 −$4 -45%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $59 +$11 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $10 +$10 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $200 +$55 +28%
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Mar 07 $81 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $19 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 26¢ $60 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 3h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $20 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $102 5d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $20 5d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $27 31d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 34d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $10 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 44d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 51¢ $9 44d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 44d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $25 44d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 48d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 48d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 49d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 52d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 55d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 58d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $50 62d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.91 · official $148.91 (match) · 101 history records