Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e6e…d7a7 crypto 906 markets active 5d ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,931 (-11%) realized −$1,931 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%534W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day138.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,306
7 days−$2,595
14 days−$2,377
30 days−$2,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 43% -47.6%
≤30d 966 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 47% -22.3%
≤90d 966 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 47% -22.3%
all 966 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 47% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 47% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 39% -29.7%
15% -32.8% 31% -36.5%
20% -39.4% 21% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses534 / 432
Open positions0
Markets (closed)966 / 906
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day138.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 966 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records