Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e73…9150 other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+7%) realized +$231 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%86W / 57L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$17
14 days+$217
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$125
other 35% +$30
politics 6% +$39
crypto 2% −$3
world 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 53% -10.4%
≤30d 143 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 56% -2.5%
≤90d 143 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 56% -2.5%
all 143 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 56% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 56% -2.5%
10% -16.0% 48% -11.9%
15% -24.1% 36% -20.4%
20% -31.5% 20% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses86 / 57
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions35
Markets (closed)143 / 178
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 66¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+13%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 63¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 54¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Marc Guéhi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $77 +$43 +56%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$4 -26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$24 -93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $161 +$20 +13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$24 -80%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +116%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$8 -37%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $65 +$15 +23%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +44%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $13 +$1 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$8 +27%
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $108 +$18 +17%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 50m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 51m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 54m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $2 56m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 78¢ $5 56m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $3 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 3h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 94¢ $100 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $3 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 3h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 80¢ $60 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 15¢ $0 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $3 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 15¢ $6 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 73¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.06 · official $251.09 (match) · 405 history records