Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e74…1823 sports 519 markets active 4d ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$285 (-4%) realized −$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%252W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$443
crypto 9% +$16
other 8% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 136 +4.8% -5.1% 53% 53% -11.8%
≤90d 233 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -14.0%
all 518 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 49% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 49% -14.0%
10% -20.0% 48% -22.2%
15% -27.7% 45% -29.7%
20% -34.8% 38% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses252 / 266
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)518 / 519
History coverage211d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 518 Trades
no open positions (241 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $51 +$52 +103%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$32 +63%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $51 +$48 +95%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$67 +111%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$40 +776%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $44 +$46 +103%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$39 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +96%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$22 +58%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$33 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$51 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $110 +$68 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $74 +$36 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $47 +$27 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$18 +51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$15 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$25 +118%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $27 +$25 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$32 +126%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $81 +$74 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $102 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 22¢ $20 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $71 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $103 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $82 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $51 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $128 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 50¢ $51 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $61 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $78 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 11¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $51 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 5d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $69 5d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $44 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 898 history records