Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e78…9d93 crypto 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+2%) realized +$60 · open +$245
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%96W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$21
14 days−$9
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$309
finance 16% +$137
other 15% −$50
politics 6% +$17
world 5% −$61
tech 1% +$2
sports 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 90% 30% -5.5%
≤30d 25 +2.5% -7.3% 84% 28% -2.8%
≤90d 61 -13.1% -21.4% 72% 15% -12.8%
all 114 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 16% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 16% -8.6%
10% -20.3% 7% -17.3%
15% -28.0% 5% -25.3%
20% -35.1% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$2,463
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses96 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)114 / 148
History coverage188d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $352 $460 +$108 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $288 $337 +$49 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 96¢ $173 $241 +$68 (+39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $188 $199 +$11 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 96¢ $123 $191 +$68 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $121 $143 +$22 (+18%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $83 $93 +$10 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 88¢ $34 $88 +$54 (+157%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $66 $70 +$3 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 81¢ 57¢ $83 $58 −$25 (-30%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 87¢ 99¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $13 $18 +$4 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 70¢ 11¢ $98 $15 −$83 (-84%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 88¢ 26¢ $44 $13 −$31 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$5 +3%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $37 −$2 -5%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more p Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $149 +$11 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $153 +$7 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $144 +$6 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $52 +$8 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 31 $32 +$48 +150%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 31 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 05 $43 +$39 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 05 $65 +$5 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 05 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $435 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $89 −$71 -80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 22 $129 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -93%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Apr 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? Apr 09 $538 −$95 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Apr 09 $54 −$54 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $134 −$134 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 09 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Apr 05 $953 +$9 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $96 −$28 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $150 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 89¢ $73 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 8d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $35 9d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 9d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more p BUY Yes 82¢ $32 12d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p BUY No 94¢ $24 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,463.15 · official $2,463.16 (match) · 421 history records