Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e79…22e3 politics 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-3%) realized −$99 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$16
culture 36% −$10
world 9% −$20
other 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.8% -32.8% 29% 21% -15.5%
≤30d 25 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 25 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 32% -15.5%
all 25 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 32% -15.5%
10% -30.5% 28% -23.6%
15% -37.2% 20% -31.0%
20% -43.3% 4% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)25 / 47
History coverage18d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 45¢ 75¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+66%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? No 51¢ 25¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-51%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? No 67¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? No 78¢ 64¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 82¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 69¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 56¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 59¢ 44¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 44¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? No 59¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +49%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 20 $132 −$12 -9%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$8 +88%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 18 $204 −$4 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 17 $95 −$6 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $243 −$17 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $70 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 04 $1 $0 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO5) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 44¢ $22 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 44¢ $22 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $21 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 59¢ $30 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $21 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 60¢ $30 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $20 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 60¢ $30 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 40¢ $2 12h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 56¢ $23 12h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 45¢ $22 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 60¢ $69 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $21 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $22 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $25 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 59¢ $30 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 48¢ $15 13h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 78¢ $83 13h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 13h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 67¢ $122 14h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 14h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 14h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 14h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 22h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 67¢ $28 22h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 67¢ $28 22h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 44¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.72 · official $30.08 · 345 history records