Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e7a…2816 crypto 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-67%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$10
sports 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -57.2% -61.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
≤30d 6 -57.2% -61.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
≤90d 6 -57.2% -61.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
all 6 -57.2% -61.3% 33% 33% -72.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.3% 33% -72.9%
10% -65.0% 17% -75.5%
15% -68.4% 17% -77.9%
20% -71.5% 0% -80.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records