Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e80…c709 sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,578 (+9%) realized +$1,576 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%151W / 146L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$312est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$259
14 days+$516
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,315
other 8% −$91
crypto 0% +$32
politics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 44% +4.4%
≤30d 122 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 297 +2.3% -7.4% 51% 49% -3.3%
all 297 +2.3% -7.4% 51% 49% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 49% -3.3%
10% -16.3% 48% -12.6%
15% -24.4% 45% -21.0%
20% -31.8% 41% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$43 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,576
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses151 / 146
Est. fees paid−$312
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage70d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$26 +50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $21 −$17 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$9 -18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +95%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $51 +$4 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $41 +$57 +139%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$37 +72%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $72 +$249 +346%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $51 +$59 +116%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +108%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$55 +108%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Lehecka vs Tiafoe Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 12 $51 +$32 +64%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $82 −$14 -17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $41 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 +$56 +78%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $26 +$70 +274%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $92 −$58 -63%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 10 $76 +$43 +57%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $79 +$32 +40%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$44 +142%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $40 +$22 +54%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $82 +$48 +59%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $49 −$11 -23%
Set 1 Winner: Gentzsch vs Hijikata Jun 09 $51 −$4 -7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 +$29 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $55 +$19 +36%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $31 +$39 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $81 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 39¢ $45 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $77 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 57¢ $51 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 1¢ $4 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 3¢ $21 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $93 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $42 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $100 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 64¢ $55 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 57¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $73 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 96¢ $98 3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 65¢ $51 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $41 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 32¢ $31 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 8¢ $21 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 29¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.50 · official $51.50 (match) · 760 history records