Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4E 0x4e81…b4ce sports 950 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,551 (+4%) realized +$1,551 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate83%787W / 161L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$165
14 days+$789
30 days+$1,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$253
sports 40% +$1,044
crypto 3% −$54
politics 2% +$170
world 0% +$27
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 59% -11.4%
≤30d 284 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 55% -6.6%
≤90d 715 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 55% -6.6%
all 948 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 55% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 55% -6.4%
10% -18.0% 23% -15.4%
15% -26.0% 8% -23.5%
20% -33.2% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses787 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)948 / 950
History coverage177d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 948 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $302 +$59 +20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $275 +$30 +11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $442 −$167 -38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $428 +$14 +3%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 +$21 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$200 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Yujin Kim Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $660 +$78 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -78%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $519 +$90 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $11 +$5 +42%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $11 +$6 +55%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $201 +$49 +24%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $12 +$3 +22%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $155 +$2 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$11 +10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $621 +$74 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $361 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $302 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $275 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 55¢ $274 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $442 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $442 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $428 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $87 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $301 15h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 16h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 76¢ $1 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 18h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 90¢ $10 25h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 74¢ $1 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 77¢ $1 31h
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Yujin Kim BUY Kanon Sawashiro 97¢ $100 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $2 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $2 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $2 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 94¢ $6 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 2d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $276 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1992 history records