Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4E 0x4e82…b550 politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
politics 27% $0
other 17% +$2
weather 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 45 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage333d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jul Aug 10 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $6 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jul 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 21 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $21 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $11 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $20 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $27 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records