Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4e84…16cd politics 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,575 (-1%) realized −$1,575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,435per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$31
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$118
other 36% −$281
sports 16% −$1,198
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +7.9% -2.4% 14% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 107 +2.3% -7.4% 9% 7% -10.3%
all 157 +4.5% -5.5% 17% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 13% -10.2%
10% -14.5% 13% -18.8%
15% -22.8% 11% -26.6%
20% -30.4% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,951) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$23 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,435
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,401 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $518 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $6,573 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,406 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,701 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $667 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,198 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,125 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,557 −$3 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $54 +$41 +76%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $72 +$51 +70%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $640 −$1 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $43 +$60 +140%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $155 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $9,800 −$10 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,274 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,471 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $76 +$36 +48%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $72 +$36 +50%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $369 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $347 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,479 −$4 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $315 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $505 32m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $506 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 2h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $646 4h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $615 5h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $616 8h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $500 23h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $501 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $517 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $518 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $871 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $873 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $790 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $792 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $826 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $827 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 550 history records