Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e87…f634 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$10
politics 29% $0
other 18% −$1
sports 10% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -5.3% -14.3% 28% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 18 -5.3% -14.3% 28% 0% -11.1%
all 53 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage300d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $82 +$4 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $3 $0 -7%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $2 $0 -19%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 34m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 34m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $5 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $1 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $25 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $20 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $11 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $35 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records