Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e88…64cd crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-5%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%39W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$94
14 days−$87
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$144
other 4% +$6
weather 2% $0
sports 1% +$29
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +138.2% +115.5% 71% 57% +113.6%
≤30d 112 +1.6% -8.1% 35% 32% -19.5%
≤90d 115 -0.4% -9.8% 34% 31% -19.6%
all 115 -0.4% -9.8% 34% 31% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 31% -19.6%
10% -18.5% 30% -27.3%
15% -26.4% 26% -34.3%
20% -33.6% 23% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses39 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)115 / 123
History coverage34d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 9¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$34 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$23 +455%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$23 +450%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$34 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$74 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $42 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 33m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $55 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $29 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 46m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $28 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 9¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.68 · official $28.71 (match) · 329 history records