Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e8a…a117 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+8%) realized +$48 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day110.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.6% -2.7% 67% 67% +2.8%
≤30d 3 +7.6% -2.7% 67% 67% +2.8%
≤90d 3 +7.6% -2.7% 67% 67% +2.8%
all 3 +7.6% -2.7% 67% 67% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 67% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -7.0%
15% -20.5% 0% -16.0%
20% -28.3% 0% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 49¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$31 (+103%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 33¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $182 +$39 +22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$16 -20%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 +$36 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $45 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $15 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $5 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $23 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $35 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $30 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $22 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $27 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $15 14m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 27¢ $16 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 72¢ $4 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 73¢ $13 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 28¢ $1 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 73¢ $38 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 30¢ $0 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $1 16m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $1 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 36¢ $0 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $4 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $0 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $1 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $1 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $2 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 36¢ $6 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $3 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 35¢ $0 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 65¢ $16 19m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 72¢ $15 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 28¢ $15 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 69¢ $16 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.45 · official $60.45 (match) · 111 history records