trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -59.9% | -63.7% | 0% | 0% | -63.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -36.5% | -42.5% | 25% | 25% | -39.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -37.8% | -43.8% | 33% | 25% | -37.0% |
| all | 14 | -37.3% | -43.3% | 36% | 29% | -28.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.3% | 29% | -28.7% |
| 10% | -48.7% | 21% | -35.5% |
| 15% | -53.7% | 14% | -41.7% |
| 20% | -58.2% | 14% | -47.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $45 | $49 | +$4 (+9%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 80¢ | $3 | $9 | +$6 (+213%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Jun 21 | $3 | −$2 | -60% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $5 | +$6 | +114% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 01 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 27 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Apr 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $3 | +$2 | +67% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 15 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Apr 08 | $21 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Mar 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Mar 22 | $15 | +$5 | +32% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 19 | $10 | −$2 | -20% |