Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e8b…4056
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$35 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$28 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$24 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$55 +276%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% +$49
other 30% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 28¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.3% +56.8% 60% 60% -6.0%
≤30d 5 +73.3% +56.8% 60% 60% -6.0%
≤90d 5 +73.3% +56.8% 60% 60% -6.0%
all 5 +73.3% +56.8% 60% 60% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.8% 60% -6.0%
10% +41.8% 60% -15.0%
15% +28.1% 60% -23.2%
20% +15.5% 60% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.24 · official $48.37 (match) · 12 history records