Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e8b…d264 crypto 145 markets active 1d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+4%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%112W / 33L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$47
other 5% +$7
finance 3% +$9
sports 1% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -3.8% -13.0% 79% 41% -6.4%
≤30d 71 -3.7% -12.9% 79% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 145 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 44% -6.9%
all 145 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 44% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -6.9%
10% -19.0% 26% -15.8%
15% -26.8% 17% -24.0%
20% -34.0% 9% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses112 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage64d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$15 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$2 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.90 · official $8.90 (match) · 627 history records