Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e8c…79bd sports 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$155 (+0%) realized +$156 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%249W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,933now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$243
14 days−$1
30 days−$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$2,053
other 41% +$1,708
world 1% +$153
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +9.3% -1.2% 46% 45% -3.2%
≤30d 273 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 42% -14.7%
≤90d 504 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 47% -9.8%
all 504 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 47% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 47% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 44% -18.5%
15% -30.2% 40% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 34% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$52 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,933
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses249 / 255
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions58
Markets (closed)504 / 562
History coverage71d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $217 $218 +$0 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 34¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 84¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 80¢ $138 $142 +$4 (+3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $108 $108 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 76¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 12¢ 14¢ $81 $91 +$10 (+12%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 70¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+7%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 88¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 68¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 69¢ 66¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 28¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 32¢ 30¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $111 −$39 -35%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $60 −$19 -33%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $11 +$10 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $169 +$23 +14%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $44 −$2 -4%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $39 +$39 +101%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $30 −$5 -18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 −$7 -38%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $39 −$23 -60%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$13 -70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $77 +$24 +32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$16 +226%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$56 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$39 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$41 +150%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $114 −$113 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$17 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 −$3 -25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$90 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $352 +$41 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$14 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 +$28 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$9 +27%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 24¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $61 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $44 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $122 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $122 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $121 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $122 7h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 65¢ $11 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $41 18h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 31¢ $22 18h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $35 18h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $20 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $25 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $46 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $18 19h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 29¢ $20 19h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 13¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,933.36 · official $2,933.40 (match) · 1089 history records