Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e8d…89e1
crypto · 180 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$81 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses114 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -8.8% -17.4% 63% 13% -18.5%
≤30d 180 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 13% -18.5%
≤90d 180 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 13% -18.5%
all 180 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 13% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 13% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 7% -26.3%
15% -32.5% 4% -33.4%
20% -39.1% 2% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records