Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4E 0x4e91…2d99 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$323per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤30d	2	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤90d	2	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
all	2	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	0%	-8.5%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.3%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$332

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$323

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	93¢	93¢	$330	$332	+$2 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Jun 22	$324	+$4	+1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 22	$316	+$3	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US military draft authorized in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$330	1h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	SELL No	91¢	$328	18h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	BUY No	90¢	$324	18h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$5	19h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$315	19h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$316	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.61 · official $333.04 (match) · 6 history records