Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e92…e4fc
other · 16 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$195 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$161 · open +$107
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$458
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 5 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $106 $121 +$15 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $17 $101 +$84 (+488%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $32 +$10 (+50%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $44 +$8 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 +$70 +223%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $22 −$19 -89%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $58 +$143 +244%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $63 −$42 -66%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $156 +$61 +39%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $32 +$27 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$64
sports 25% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $51 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $44 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $24 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $0 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $31 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $109 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $104 17h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 28h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 33h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $63 34h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 34h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 34h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $59 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 45% +20.2%
≤30d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 45% +20.2%
≤90d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 45% +20.2%
all 11 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 45% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 45% +20.2%
10% -14.2% 36% +8.7%
15% -22.5% 36% -1.8%
20% -30.1% 27% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.50 · official $458.50 (match) · 33 history records