Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e93…be55
sports · 895 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,449 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,443 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$839
Realized−$2,443
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses363 / 559
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions6
Markets (closed)922 / 895
History coverage40d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day85.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 922 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$709
7 days−$462
14 days−$565
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 94¢ $234 $254 +$21 (+9%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? No 96¢ 94¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 96¢ 94¢ $170 $167 −$3 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 81¢ $174 $157 −$17 (-10%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? No 96¢ 90¢ $66 $62 −$4 (-6%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Ninjas in Pyjamas 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Racing Club de Lens 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 21¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? No 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage MOUZ 32¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Under 94¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$35 -3463%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -101%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$4 -280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $177 +$11 +6%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $203 +$18 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $197 +$6 +3%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $243 +$21 +9%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $189 +$21 +11%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $195 −$194 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $235 +$15 +6%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $129 +$3 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $235 +$11 +5%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $267 +$8 +3%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $52 +$8 +15%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $286 +$21 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $267 −$267 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $568 +$42 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $249 +$3 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$810
other 26% −$111
crypto 19% −$1,103
world 6% +$37
politics 4% −$33
finance 2% −$7
tech 1% +$12
weather 1% −$51
culture 0% −$96
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $25 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $89 1h
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $188 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $54 2h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 96¢ $170 2h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $222 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $7 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $15 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $142 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? SELL No 99¢ $172 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $33 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? SELL No 99¢ $30 3h
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $177 7h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $87 7h
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $264 7h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $16 9h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $16 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $20 9h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $53 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $105 9h
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $210 9h
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $93 9h
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $91 9h
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $46 9h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -27.3% -34.2% 61% 12% -12.4%
≤30d 431 -18.7% -26.5% 48% 12% -13.6%
≤90d 922 -14.2% -22.4% 39% 17% -15.3%
all 922 -14.2% -22.4% 39% 17% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 17% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 10% -23.4%
15% -36.6% 7% -30.8%
20% -42.8% 5% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.52 · official $838.52 (match) · 3500 history records