Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e97…7c85 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+6%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%52W / 22L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 71% -3.6%
≤30d 74 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 70% -4.7%
≤90d 74 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 70% -4.7%
all 74 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 70% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 70% -4.7%
10% -19.9% 45% -13.8%
15% -27.7% 7% -22.1%
20% -34.8% 4% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses52 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage28d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$15 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$16 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$16 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $33 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$7 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $29 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.49 · official $30.49 (match) · 280 history records