Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e97…b52f crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-15%) realized −$13 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -36.7% -42.7% 45% 25% -35.1%
≤30d 20 -36.7% -42.7% 45% 25% -35.1%
≤90d 20 -36.7% -42.7% 45% 25% -35.1%
all 20 -36.7% -42.7% 45% 25% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 25% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 20% -41.3%
15% -53.2% 10% -47.0%
20% -57.8% 5% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 49¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.91 · official $4.54 · 56 history records