Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e99…aa24 crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+0%) realized +$168 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%228W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$31
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$148
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 66 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 228 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses228 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)228 / 230
History coverage544d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $609 $607 −$2 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $607 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $605 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $603 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $599 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $593 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $591 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $589 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $584 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $583 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $580 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $577 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $575 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $572 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $569 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $565 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $562 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $559 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $557 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $555 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $553 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $545 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $540 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $609 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $607 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $605 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $603 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $599 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $597 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $596 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $593 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $591 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $589 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $584 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $583 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $580 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $577 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $575 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $574 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $572 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $572 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $572 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $569 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $568 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $567 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $566 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $565 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $563 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $562 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $561 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $559 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $557 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.65 · official $607.65 (match) · 467 history records