Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e99…2229 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$279 (+11%) realized +$359 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%43W / 34L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$195
other 3% −$21
crypto 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +12.8% +2.0% 56% 55% +1.8%
≤30d 77 +12.8% +2.0% 56% 55% +1.8%
≤90d 77 +12.8% +2.0% 56% 55% +1.8%
all 77 +12.8% +2.0% 56% 55% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 55% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 53% -7.9%
15% -16.7% 52% -16.8%
20% -24.8% 43% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses43 / 34
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions6
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 64¢ 100¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 70¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 64¢ 44¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-30%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 9¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Solary 58¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $35 +$16 +44%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$17 +41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$31 +123%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$22 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$11 +43%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$25 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $14 +$15 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $30 −$26 -85%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $15 +$8 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$26 +74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $28 +$22 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$59 +58%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$15 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$29 +77%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $33 +$37 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $25 +$17 +66%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$23 +103%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $25 −$23 -92%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $25 +$11 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $22 +$32 +143%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 −$17 -48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $25 −$10 -41%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$44 +74%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$45 +98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $35 +$27 +76%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $18 +$66 +357%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$18 +75%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$13 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 +$11 +14%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$24 -67%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 −$19 -54%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $35 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $51 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $35 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $25 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 44¢ $51 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $57 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $35 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 68¢ $35 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $40 4h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $57 5h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 44¢ $25 6h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY summer bear 52¢ $36 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $57 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $36 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 69¢ $25 8h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 61¢ $35 8h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 70¢ $101 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $14 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 11¢ $18 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 8¢ $4 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $22 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $21 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $62 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $50 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 56¢ $35 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.37 · official $130.37 (match) · 168 history records