Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e9b…e8f3
crypto · 14 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$10 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$8 +724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$10
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +55.4% +40.6% 69% 69% +5.3%
≤30d 13 +55.4% +40.6% 69% 69% +5.3%
≤90d 13 +55.4% +40.6% 69% 69% +5.3%
all 13 +55.4% +40.6% 69% 69% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.6% 69% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here +27.1% 62% -4.7%
15% +14.9% 38% -13.9%
20% +3.6% 23% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 28 history records