Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e9c…a729 crypto 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$785 (-13%) realized −$785 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%189W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$260
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 35% -11.8%
≤30d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 46% 36% -32.0%
≤90d 416 -15.3% -23.4% 41% 37% -24.2%
all 444 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 38% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 38% -23.4%
10% -28.6% 34% -30.7%
15% -35.5% 30% -37.4%
20% -41.9% 26% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$785
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses189 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)444 / 444
History coverage149d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 444 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $82 +$52 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$14 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$33 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$72 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$31 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records