Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e9d…d1d9 crypto 618 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%555W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$79
14 days−$59
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -14.0% -22.2% 78% 12% -39.2%
≤30d 404 -2.7% -11.9% 91% 7% -11.3%
≤90d 618 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 9% -10.1%
all 618 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 9% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 5% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses555 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)618 / 618
History coverage38d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 618 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1559 history records