Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e9f…1af9 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
politics 14% $0
other 14% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 3% +$7
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -0.1% -9.7% 42% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage255d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 −$3 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 31 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $12 +$7 +56%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $3 $0 +9%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $1 −$1 -55%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Oct 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Award Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.79 · official $31.79 (match) · 146 history records