Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ea5…9d40 politics 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%48W / 174L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$78
politics 19% −$4
other 13% −$11
crypto 3% +$3
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 149 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -10.8%
all 222 -0.7% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses48 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage138d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $5 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11PM ET May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 25m
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 35m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 5h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 12h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $7 15h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 15h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 16h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 16h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 18h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 19h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 19h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $5 20h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 37h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 38h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 38h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 40h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 40h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 40h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 41h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $8 43h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $8 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1000 history records