Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ea9…9248 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$7
other 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 41% -12.3%
≤30d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 41% -12.3%
all 39 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 41% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -20.7%
15% -26.5% 26% -28.4%
20% -33.7% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$4 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $7 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records