Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4eaa…a36f sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-1%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$51
14 days−$115
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$29
politics 32% −$82
sports 18% −$82
economics 14% −$6
crypto 2% −$46
world 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 15 -5.2% -14.3% 13% 7% -13.8%
≤90d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 19% 10% -10.8%
all 113 -6.5% -15.4% 27% 21% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 21% -10.5%
10% -23.5% 21% -19.0%
15% -30.9% 21% -26.8%
20% -37.7% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage516d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $337 −$37 -11%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $563 −$5 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $164 −$5 -3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$13 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -96%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $197 −$2 -1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$30 +59%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $71 −$17 -24%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 23 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $140 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $360 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $350 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $420 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Daria Kasatkina vs Ann Li Apr 15 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Apr 13 $13 +$7 +59%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 04 $550 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $138 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $168 3h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $162 41h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $169 41h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $160 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $159 3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $164 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records