Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4eab…2caa
weather · 1226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$336 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$646 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$487
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses617 / 456
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions90
Markets (closed)1073 / 1226
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day227.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 90 History 1073 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days+$217
14 days+$646
30 days+$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? No 72¢ 100¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 78¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? No 60¢ 100¢ $11 $19 +$7 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? No 69¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 72¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? No 75¢ 68¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? No 77¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? No 72¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 74¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? No 85¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 99¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 76¢ 85¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 53¢ 100¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? No 86¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 64¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? No 84¢ 81¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? No 76¢ 71¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? No 54¢ 36¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? No 84¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? No 79¢ 74¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? No 73¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? No 70¢ 64¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 22? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 18? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$968
sports 17% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 73¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 73¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 44¢ $3 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 730 -11.9% -20.2% 52% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 1073 +3.3% -6.6% 58% 55% +1.8%
≤90d 1073 +3.3% -6.6% 58% 55% +1.8%
all 1073 +3.3% -6.6% 58% 55% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover227.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 55% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -7.9%
15% -23.7% 29% -16.8%
20% -31.1% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.68 · official $486.79 (match) · 3500 history records