Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4eac…1344 crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$948 (-6%) realized −$948 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%49W / 57L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,442
sports 5% +$115
world 1% −$33
other 0% −$27
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.6% -42.6% 40% 33% -35.7%
≤30d 15 -36.6% -42.6% 40% 33% -35.7%
≤90d 15 -36.6% -42.6% 40% 33% -35.7%
all 106 -15.7% -23.7% 46% 44% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 44% -16.8%
10% -31.0% 39% -24.8%
15% -37.7% 32% -32.1%
20% -43.8% 23% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -31% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$82 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$948
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage113d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $78 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 16 $154 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 16 $2,347 −$1,539 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 15 $600 −$577 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 15 $410 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 15 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 15 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 15 $200 +$231 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 15 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 15 $220 −$20 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 15 $220 +$71 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 15 $200 +$170 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 15 $1,347 +$472 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 15 $775 +$216 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 15 $110 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 15 $100 +$65 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 15 $1,093 −$35 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 15 $675 +$418 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 15 $464 +$215 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$31 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 15 $200 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 15 $120 +$143 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 15 $130 −$65 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 15 $638 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 15 $1,093 −$111 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 15 $531 +$203 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 15 $150 +$130 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 15 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 15 $666 +$108 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 15 $168 +$119 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 15 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $69 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $63 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $84 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records