Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4eaf…601e sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$351 (+33%) realized +$308 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$341
14 days+$341
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$126
sports 21% +$266
world 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+73.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +124.8% +103.4% 43% 43% +60.7%
≤30d 21 +124.8% +103.4% 43% 43% +60.7%
≤90d 21 +124.8% +103.4% 43% 43% +60.7%
all 30 +92.0% +73.7% 53% 50% +51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.7% 50% +51.0%
10% +57.1% 50% +36.5%
15% +41.9% 47% +23.3%
20% +28.0% 33% +11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +215% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$9 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.72 per $1 lost it wins $3.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage232d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 −$12 -23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$139 +1351%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $18 +$1 +6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $5 +$3 +59%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5) Nov 03 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 03 $1 +$1 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $1 $0 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $8 +$5 +56%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 31h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 31h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $41 41h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 36¢ $20 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.80 · official $562.80 (match) · 68 history records