Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4E 0x4eb2…1bfc sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$65 (+3%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%76W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$24
14 days+$48
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$59
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +41.1% +27.6% 65% 61% -6.2%
≤30d 117 +20.5% +9.0% 65% 64% -6.9%
≤90d 117 +20.5% +9.0% 65% 64% -6.9%
all 117 +20.5% +9.0% 65% 64% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 64% -6.9%
10% -1.4% 32% -15.8%
15% -10.9% 26% -23.9%
20% -19.7% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses76 / 41
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Terence Atmane 14¢ 14¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $6 +$90 +1521%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $16 +$11 +67%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $14 +$11 +83%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $17 −$16 -98%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $16 +$3 +21%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $20 −$19 -99%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $23 +$8 +34%
Set 2 Winner: Cobolli vs Tiafoe Jun 15 $18 +$7 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $26 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $24 +$6 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $24 +$3 +14%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $31 +$4 +12%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $33 +$33 +102%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $31 +$8 +26%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $10 +$27 +267%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $23 +$9 +38%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 09 $14 +$2 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $24 +$11 +46%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $28 +$3 +11%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $13 +$21 +156%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $16 +$43 +265%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $17 +$9 +53%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $16 +$5 +29%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $18 +$3 +18%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick Jun 06 $18 +$3 +14%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $23 −$22 -99%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $17 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 14¢ $14 6m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 86¢ $26 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 83¢ $9 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $11 2h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Leo Raquillet $6 2h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 35¢ $14 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 47¢ $18 6h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 59¢ $16 7h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 54¢ $14 17h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 33¢ $17 24h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 82¢ $16 25h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 55¢ $20 26h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 56¢ $17 28h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 81¢ $21 29h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Raphael Perot 83¢ $25 29h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 91¢ $25 30h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 83¢ $24 32h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 74¢ $23 46h
Set 2 Winner: Cobolli vs Tiafoe BUY Tiafoe 72¢ $18 2d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 84¢ $21 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 51¢ $26 2d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 81¢ $24 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 87¢ $24 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 44¢ $29 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova $16 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 89¢ $31 4d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 73¢ $38 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 49¢ $33 5d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 79¢ $31 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 27¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.98 · official $12.50 (match) · 203 history records